Silver Rally Over?

The silver market has cooled down a bit

But is it over? After a 50% crash in price one could assume that the rally is simply over. But let's have a look at the chart going back to the 60s to see if we can spot a pattern. It took a decade for price to climb around 4000% in the 70s and another decade in the 00s for a 10x. There was also a very long correction in both cases, although the first was very prolonged lasting almost two decades. Sine 2020 price has now once again sky rocketed and I guess the question is if price can still climb before a longer lasting correction.

Both upward phases were marked with a consolidation phase lasting several years (ellipse). But there were essentially two main impulse waves and every rally ended with a parabolic move. So I guess the question then becomes: is the current rally part of a first or second impulse wave? To me the answer is quite clear: we have so far only seen one big rally, and history suggests that there might be a second one before a longer lasting correction happens.

If so, the outlook could perhaps be something like this. Some more years of consolidation and a retest of the now multi decade long support coming from the previous peaks. This should be a very strong support overall. Then, perhaps at around 2029 there could be a sharp breakout to the top with silver once again going parabolic. We could then see a peak at around 2031...

Conclusion

It looks like silver is going to continue its cool down phase for the next couple of years. But the strong support in the 50s together with the historical tendency of a second impulse wave could send silver on a final rally in the early 2030s. Coincidentally, this would rhyme with the 1929 crash and a flight into safe assets; geopolitically there could also be an escalation with Russia and or China in this time period as well (let's hope not!)...

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