HIVE Macro Outlook

Have We Finally Bottomed?

Back in February I gave my last outlook on Hive and honestly I didn't feel like making a new one. The market is still very rough and we can only be cautiously optimistic (if at all). The first thing that has to happen before we could see a turn around is the formation of some sort of bottom. Back then I made this chart and it aged actually not too bad:

When we compare it to what happened, the bottom might have formed in the 5-6 cents area based upon several weekly closes here.

This third major correction has now put us between the first two at around -90%. Can we therefore assume that the worst is over and a recovery is about to begin?

So far we have always seen a big rally after such a strong correction and it has generally occurred in a "U-shaped" recovery. If so, it could look something like this:

As you can see there is a strong resistance coming from the two peaks in 2021 and 2025 which gives us a price of around 25 cents for the end of 2026. A perhaps weaker resistance also sits at around 20 cents which comes from the former support (dotted line).

So?

I am not even attempting here to try and give an accurate outlook as the chart still looks very weak. However, if the current "support" holds, then we should see a U-shaped recovery - although, and that is the caveat, there is no real telling of how good it would be.

In any case, if we see a recovery it will take some time. Even a quick recovery such as the one in the chart would take until the end of 2026. You can also see that I am currently placing the "end" of a potential bull cycle in 2028 which would allow for months and perhaps a year of a correction before price could pull up again. If we can confirm a rally soon, I will give another outlook for 2028. Until then, fingers crossed!

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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