Crypto Analysis | PI-Cycle Top For Bitcoin

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There is one indicator that has been the golden standard...

... for calling the tops. I am talking about the PI-Cycle Top indicator and so far it has managed to call every top correctly. Well, that is kind of. For the first cycle it indicated two tops because BTC was just absolutely going parabolic back then. It essentially was two tops considering the % increase overall. And for the third cycle it was called a bit early. BTC still kept going in 2021 to make an ATH in November and not in spring of that year. Nevertheless, I think this indicator is quite reliable to point to a next top.

If so, then what does this chart suggest?

By looking at the green and red lines we can see then the next top will occur: This will happen when red crosses green. And interestingly, they are still quite far apart. I have indicated that distance with the black bars. But we can also see that it took only 168 days to cross in the third cycle. For the second it took 315 days. If we, however, take the actual ATH in the third cycle, we get 378 days. A gradual lengthening of this pattern seems more realistic to me.

If so, the next top could between the next 168 to around 450 days... A big uncertainty, but it mainly comes from the uncertainty if this will again be a "double top" or a "single top". The dates seem somewhat plausible as well. They are August 2025 and April 2026. In other words a slight shift to last time which was in April and November (the shift would be from April 2021 => August 2025, and November 2021 => April 2026).

If we try to measure the potential increase left, I came up with this chart:

A top at around 360k... that actually sounds quite reasonable.

Conclusion

With any other indicator or method of trying to predict the future comes uncertainty. But I think this indicator has proven itself quite useful. My certainty is fairly high that the top and the height will be in the range discussed here. But will it help in actually selling the top? I hope that rationale will triumph emotions this time around... My bet is that it won't 😅

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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