How do research firms predict future?

When a new technology comes out, every research organizations are predicting the technology as a trend using Hype Circle or Magic Quadrant or etc. These research firms are the lighthouse of the new technology, but predicts wrong information as well.

Last year, Gartner have predicted that 90% of block chain project shall be failed by the end of 2017. As now, we are living in the era of 2018, most of the block chain projects are becoming bigger. They have other wrong cases in the numbers of shipping laptops and prediction on iPhone as well. It is not specific problems of Gartner. IDC or Forrester do these mistakes as well.

How come these organizations predicts new technology every year? Are there some kinds of aliens who predict the future? Some might think of that. But the information is coming from us. You should look into the methodology how the products and process are working inside the organization.

They are providing the service in research document, statistic data and advisory service. What you should focus on is advisory service. The companies are advertising that you can get insight directly from the experts. It is true but also in other meaning, you are giving away your concerns and problems. These concerns and problems are piled into database of the research firms and they are being used as the prediction structure modeling or rational for a certain.

Also as the sales staffs are approaching to some certain prospects to sell these invisible products. They are using value propositioning sales approach. During the period, they are keeping asking you the questions as if they can solve your concerns. The concerns and problems are being noted somewhere so that can help the prediction as well.

In other words, you are paying for the products with thousands of dollars annually and paying your time. Of course, you are getting wisdom back. And giving back the information to sustain their business.

These processes are not specified to IT technology research savvy firms. Other research firms also follow these processes as well. That is why certain start-ups like Streetbees are changing the rule and much fair. They are telling you that they get the information from you and giving you back the fee, not getting subscription fee model.