If you never saw the dump coming......

......Then you're a big fool

So social media is abuzz with Microstrategy currently losing $10M from their investment in BTC and everyone seems to be losing their minds and calling for the end of time.

This is classic bear market vibes like we've seen in previous market situations, and I wonder why a lot of people are still like this.

For one, if you didn't expect this dump then you're a fool, secondly if you thought this year coupled with the last is a still a bull run year, when you're an even bigger fool, as I've said before.

Now back to Microstrategy.

It's rumored that they obtain loans to buy BTC, I'm sure there's a hedge or collateral somewhere, but still, no one talks about the fact that an organisation will borrow money to actually purchase BTC.

Don't get me wrong, it's not a bad business model. BTC is the most trusted digital asset of the 21st century, but we don't need a seer to tell us that Saylor is taking a lot of risks and reminds me of FTX in 2022.

Now if they're taking a loan and hoping to pay back these loans from making profit, then how are they not selling when the market is completely green.

I don't want to sit somewhere imagining that Saylor is a rogue billionaire, I want to think he's a smart guy who's doing extra risky thing mostly to take advantage of whatever BTC futuristically becomes, and I want to think he's not doing all these for short term gains, but if they don't understand when to sell to take profit and pay back their loans whatsoever then the whole arrangement might bite them back in the short run.

My point is, of this is indeed borrowing loans to buy BTC, then they have to learn to start buying at the bottom and perhaps selling some percentage at the top especially if their goal is to own a sizeable percentage of BTC supply in the future.

The 32 BTC they sold lately didn't seem like a bright idea for a tech company like they are. They probably need to benefit in the short run even though they're not in profit always (which is expected, especially in a red market).

I may be thinking like a person burned by the market, and they're probably not thinking like the way I am, but I still maintain that you need to secure gains in the short term even though you have a different goal in the long run, especially since they're getting loans and don't have billions of dollars stored somewhere.

Although I still think 99% of people have timing problems when it comes to crypto, and this is always the problem with being an investor or being a holder, and that's knowing when to sell, hold or buy. If up to 5 or 10% or even didn't have this problem then crypto would have onboard more people.

$2M long in BTC

Yesterday someone said that they lost $2M in BTC long, and that it was virtually their life savings. I don't know if they hedged that money, but longing BTC when we're actually in a year where BTC was historically supposed to dump is one of the most irrational thing ever, but I won't blame him that much.

I think we've all been there: irrational, misjudged timing and many weird stuff. There are no professional when it comes to crypto. Even extremely rich people can make stupid decisions, and Saylor and his company is not an exception, no matter how much they have earned or made.

By 2028 they'll have only experience two full cycles since they started buying BTC six years ago, which means they're also pretty much very young in the crypto market, and this means they'll make a couple more mistakes.