or rather, has BTC bottomed?

Well, whichever way you like to look at it. Have we bottomed? This is the big question everyone is asking, since BTC hasn't retested the 58k range again in the past two months.

Infact a lot of people are now actually buying and it just looks like the market has bottomed because we haven't seen any outrageous dips in the past one month, just the regular dips we're used to seeing everyday, and the recovery that follows almost immediately.

However I just think the market might just be getting everyone all relaxed before the major dump that gets them to lose their mind, maybe I'm paranoid, maybe not, but ain't no way BTC is bottoming at 58k, and even worse, no way it bottomed in May, this is just "anti-market".

Even though you say "but we never really had a real bull market" I still think the market is following or trying to replicate patterns from yesteryears. I also understand that a lot of alts are still -92 to -93% from their all-time high in 2025, but this isn't enough reason to think the market has completely changed or now following another pattern.

I'll probably change my mind if till the end of 2026 and BTC didn't test the 58k range again or dump to 50k. (which I believe should be the bottom range) The reason I think so is because I don't believe 2027 will be a dump year for crypto, except the market fails to bottom this year and continue to stay within the 60k to 65k range.

I believe there has to be a dump somewhere and that dump might be coming in a few months, and if we don't get that till the end of the year, I think it'll be difficult for that to happen in 2027, even if the possibility is always there. I think 2027 might just be a drab year, and nothing might happen in terms of price, no development no new tech or anything except.

Personally I feel that the market might only begin to show significant change after the BTC halving in early 2028, and this is when everyone who is currently investing may begin to take profit.

But this isn't to say 2027 won't dump a lot, I just think that dump may be stipulated for Q4 or something like that, and it'll catch everyone unaware. I don't have much money at the money but even if I did, I won't be making any purchases until maybe mid Q4.

Maybe that's why I'm broke though, because I just know how to talk alone, and only those who are making moves are fit enough to talk, maybe not.

The market is something no one can actually talk about getting it 100% right, and the few people who have gotten it right are those who are less sentimental and have gotten it properly right.

This is why a proactive look at the market is something you learn to do when you've been burned too many times.

My final assessment

So I see my self as part of the people the market has burned, and that's why I think I now make deductions based on what's probably viable. So. I don't think the market has bottomed because another 20% dump from this current price is likely.

I don't think it'll be more than that, and that's why I think he 48k to 55k range might be the bottom. Another theory is that the market didn't pump as hard in 2025, so the dump might not be as hard either, and even if this was the case.

I still think a dump to 55k is inevitable, and that would be a dump from 65k (which it currently is) to around 55k, which is still not as bad. As for alts, the market is already red, so not pumping again in the next market pump will be outrageous which I think will not happen.

What do you think, what are your speculations so far? Has the market bottomed?