Bitcoin Uptrend: Summer Relief Rally

It seemed like a good time to do a little update on the market as of late.

Number has been slowly going up for almost a month now and some of that bearish sentiment is getting flushed out for the time being. Is now a good time to ape into Bitcoin? For those who have the dry powder to buy spot, it's a great time to get in. For the rest of the plebs trading on leverage not so much. But then again I suppose such happenstances are often the case.

Zooming out and looking long term. 💚💚💚❤️

At this juncture most signals are pointing to the fact that Bitcoin's four-year-cycle is still very much undefeated. Those who have subscribed that that ideology have done remarkably well thus far. Timing the exact bottom is nearly impossible, but if we haven't gotten their already the final drop should be coming well before the end of the year.

Could $58k have been the bottom

Normally I would say no because that would mean this bear market was only like 7 or 8 months long, but also $58k has been the most significant price point for Bitcoin in the history of ever. I honestly will not be surprised if Bitcoin never has another $58k moment that claims and reclaims the same area over and over again across two separate cycles. So, yeah, we could have bottomed, but also there's very little reason to go crazy and jump in now when we haven't even made it the full year. After all, if the cycle is still in place Bitcoin is about to go up for three years straight all over again. With that in mind anyone buying now and willing to hold 3 years: it doesn't really matter where the entry-point is.

There are several analysis points that show pretty high resistance regardless of the strong monthly candle. This is a resistance line that, like $58k itself, also goes all the way back into the previous cycle during 2021. Remember when $69420 was a hilarious high point? Now everyone is just annoyed to be here. Classic crypto bros.

This retest of the 50 month average also happened during the 2022 bear market as shown in the chart. The idea being that we should expect a collapse from here to the real bottom before finally skyrocketing back upwards. To me this makes sense, as sentiment never really got down to those traditionally bleak levels and the price never grinded the floor for a month straight like we often see.

Hardfork next month... and a softfork as well.

In doing some research on BIP110 I also realized there's still a completely separate hardfork happening next month as well. It's the eCash hardfork that steal the Satoshi premine and gives it to angel investors of the new chain. Hopefully that's still happening because I'd like to dump those coins like a bad habit. It's like watching New York state trying to claim the Satoshi premine under the premise of "abandoned property" laws. Absurd to the max. Unspent money belongs to the community in the form of a higher spot price. Unfortunately this is a problem Hive has as well in the form of DHF spending.

Conclusion

It's been nice seeing green in the market but many people including myself are wary of this summer relief rally coming to an unceremonious ending. We are currently facing the headwinds of multiple resistance lines around $66k and September has always been the best month to buy out of the entire year. I suppose I'll continue to stack what I can to bull the trigger at the end of the quarter.