A connundrum from the General Election

Part of the reason Labour won 411 seats in the general election despite getting only 33.7% of the vote, is that the right-wing vote was split, with many 2019 Tory voters switching to Reform.

Yet despite knowing it was a Labour versus Tory election, and that switching to Reform would let Labour in, Reform voters appear to be the most unhappy with the election result.

For example here is their opinion of the new Labour Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper:

source

Reform voters give her a Net Approval of -45. Here is their reaction to the appointment of Sir Patrick Vallance (the former chief scientific advisor):

source

They're the only group giving him a negative net approval of -22.

Given that the way Reform people voted ushered in a Labour govt, you'd think they'd be as happy as LibDem voters who also acted in an anti-Tory way. But they're not.

So what is going on?

I think a lot of them didn't believe the polls. They didn't think they were letting Labour in, and they certainly didn't believe there would be a Labour supermajority.

Instead they convinced themselves they were part of a vast movement to replace the Tories, and that the outgoing Parliament's 39 seat Tory majority would turn into a 39 seat Reform majority.

In the event they got 15% of the vote and 5 seats.

It's likely they'll end up even more unhappy with the Labour government than they were with the Tories.

But will they go back to the Tories at the next election, or will they have another go at getting their movement into power?