Variance in Poker

In this example, I’ve taken a grinder who plays $100 tournaments with 2000 players, $10 rake and his ROI is 30%. After 2500 tournaments, this crusher could be stuck $91’300, if he’s running poorly (even though his average run would be making him $80’000!) This is also why you see me play $5-$22 tournaments on twitch because I simply can’t afford the variance of playing $100 tournaments only.

You can calculate your own tournament variance on this website: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/. A Standard Deviation of around 100 should be fine.

Funny enough, pokerdope.com also has a "Hearthstone variance calculator" http://pokerdope.com/number-of-games-to-reach-legend-in-hearthstone/. As a player who has actually never reached legend it's good to know how lucky I have to be when I play less than 200 games with a winrate that's probably not exceeding 55% all that often ;)

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