Splinterlands CA Jackpot Math

Conclave Arcana is coming to a close soon, and there are still LOTS of jackpots left in Gator's bucket. Over 4000. Meanwhile, there are Just 377k "pack equivalents" left in existence (across what's for sale, what's in players' hands, and what's in the DAO).

A "pack equivalent" (PE) is the value of a pack when counting its chances at landing a jackpot prize. Packs are worth the following:

• Standard pack = 1 PE
• Alchemy pack = 3 PE
• Legendary pack = 6 PE

Given the number of jackpot prizes left and the amount of PE equivalents in circulation, the CURRENT chance for you to get a jackpot from a pack is as follows:

• Standard pack = 1.07% (1 in ~93.5)
• Alchemy pack = 3.21% (1 in ~31)
• Legendary pack = 6.43% (1 in ~15.5)

SIX POINT FOR THREE PERCENT. Let that sink in.

And the kicker? The odds will keep increasing for the next 8 days as packs get burned each day. Hard to say how much will get burned exactly, as that depends on how many packs get bought, but it's not unrealistic to think another 200k PE will vanish in thin air. If that's the case, the odds above would roughly double. Not too shabby.

And now, here's Vinnie doing some mathin'...