Sinema will support the IRA.
Schumer says the 1% excise on stock buybacks will bring in $74 billion. The removal of carried interest changes loses out on $14 billion. The removal of accelerated depreciation from the corporate minimum tax loses out on $55 billion. So it is a net of $5 billion more revenue than before Sinema's changes to the Inflation Reduction Act.
We've had record stock buybacks in recent years. They were a significant activity of corporations after the TCJA and during the pandemic.
I'd argue also the excise tax is pretty straightforward to administer and more understandable for the public than the other two. It will also marginally increase dividends over share repurchases. I'm a bigger fan of the former in terms of economy wide
I wanted to see the carried interest loophole patched, but I'm a fan of the accelerated depreciation exemption. And I dislike share buybacks versus the alternatives for corporate finance. So I actually for once like Sinema's ideas here on net over the status quo. Though ideally I would have liked to see the carried interest language kept.
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