Change in the generic ballot going forward before the Midterms.

The polling error of the generic ballot for the House popular vote is pretty accurate on election day as far as polling goes (~2%), so it isn't a useless metric.

Going back to 2006, the trend from here on out tends to worsen for the party in power.

This is why I said earlier the generic ballot needed to significantly improve for Democrats if they are to keep the House as generally it should decline over the next few months.

But who knows? There have been some surprises with the generic ballot. 1962 was a surprise with the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. In 1998, House Republicans launched an impeachment trial against Clinton that backfired politically. And 9/11 caused a rally around the flag effect for the incumbent Republicans.

Maybe Republican extremism around abortion and election denial will be enough to engage voters to turnout and push independents away from the GOP. Maybe Trump will enter the 2024 race early and make the Midterms about him. Maybe Trump's legal troubles will do the same.

Though between historical trends and the GOP's redistricting control, I would be surprised if the Dems kept the House. Right now the 538 model forecasts a 22% chance the Dems keep the House. The Senate forecast is much better at 62%.

One of my bigger concerns is what effect this may have on US support for Ukraine as Republicans haven't been as interested in maintaining military, financial, and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.