CDC ensemble forecast and Omicron sub-lineage prevalence.
Updated CDC ensemble forecast for new hospital admissions and new weekly deaths over the next month.
Hospital admissions are expected to start declining. Deaths are expected to increase.
BA.2 shouldn't affect these forecasts too much. The early vaccine effectiveness data on BA.2 is good.
Note these are national forecasts. The states that were first hit by Omicron like New York already are declining. But for others like Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Oklahoma hospitalization admissions are still increasing.
Every HHS region is above 99% prevalence for Omicron. Delta is nearly gone. Omicron infection gives you protection against both Omicron and Delta reinfection. Likewise vaccine effectiveness against infection, particularly if boosted, is high against Delta. So we should see Omicron fully displace Delta.
Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 is still limited in the US at present. In preliminary data it looks to have a growth advantage over the original Omicron BA.1. So it may overtake BA.1 in the coming weeks. It doesn't appear to have more immune evasion.
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