Bleaker by the day.

It's estimated that 37 million people in China are getting COVID per day right now, with an estimated 250 million cases over the course of this month. It's also estimated there will be 1-2 million deaths in China in the current wave, mainly due to undervaccination (and poor vaccine quality) in the elderly. Here's a source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/23/china-could-be-experiencing-37-million-daily-covid-19-infections

There's almost no news coverage of this given the magnitude of what's about to happen.

China has gone from their intense zero covid policy to an equally intense "let 'er rip policy, in part due to the protests that happened recently over the zero-covid policy.

However, the official Chinese case count looks like the graph below, showing cases at close to zero. The real case count is likely being suppressed or not even measured.

Note that you can't have 37 million cases per day for very long... even with 1.4 billion people you'd hit herd immunity in a month. But that's going to be a really terrible month where the medical system gets completely overwhelmed and you have people dying in waiting rooms and hallways.

This is what someone with a lot of relatives in China has to say:

Everyone is getting Covid in China. I’m from [Tier 1 city] and my entire family and most of my friends there have just caught Covid. The official number is hilarious and everyone laughs at it. My source is that a lot of people in my WeChat circle are posting their positive Covid tests etc - not so scientific but it's clear the official numbers are definitely way off.