Is a dump once etf gets approved guranteed? I keep hearing people say sell the news but I am not too sure

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Is a dump once etf gets approved guranteed? I keep hearing people say sell the news but I am not too sure My opinion of it, is if we see a $38 k - $36k before etf approval I can't see a pull back that major from the sell off after the etf. If we don't see the $38k btc before the etf and rather the price is at $43 - $48k then I think we will see a sell off after the etf,
i personally do not believe that the uptick in btc came from etf approval. In cycles pumps happen before the halving and then dies down afterwards and then the jets go into overdrive.

The only logical reason I can see is that the CME futures has been driving the current btc rally and they take profits before Christmas holiday to get their bonuses There is also a large deribit options expiring on the 29th December.