Is Bitcoin Really Making a Bottom? What On-Chain Data Is Indicating

A question has been circulating in the cryptocurrency market for a long time—is Bitcoin preparing to turn around, or is a bigger drop ahead? Looking at some recent on-chain data and market analysis, it seems to me that many analysts are viewing the current period as a potential "Accumulation Phase".

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The most discussed is Bitcoin's 200-week Moving Average. This level has been seen in various past market cycles as an important support in the long term. Currently, Bitcoin is again above this area, which is a positive sign for many.

Another thing that caught my eye. A large part of the Bitcoin market is still in unrealized losses. Normally, when many investors are in losses, fear increases in the market. But history shows that many long-term investors slowly start accumulating assets at such times.

The behavior of holders who have held Bitcoin for a long time is also quite important at the moment. According to recent data, they are returning to net accumulation. On the other hand, many short-term investors are selling at a loss. Such a situation has also been seen during various market bottoms in the past.

There are also some positive signs from institutional investors. New money has started flowing into the US Spot Bitcoin ETF again. Although the future of the entire market cannot be determined with a few days of data, it is still considered a sign of increasing interest from large investors.

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From a technical perspective, the $60,000 to $62,000 area is seen as an important support. If this area can be held, the next resistance could be around $63,500 to $65,000. However, if the market loses this support, the possibility of testing lower levels cannot be ruled out.

In my personal view, it is not right to be overly optimistic in the current market, nor is there any reason to be unnecessarily afraid. The crypto market is always highly volatile. Therefore, investment decisions should not be made based solely on one analysis or the opinion of one institution.

Finally, I think that for those who observe the market with a long-term perspective, now is the time to patiently analyze the data. It is wiser to evaluate each market movement not with emotion, but with information and risk management.