How Much Rocket Payload Is Needed?

Ponder these two numbers: 109,500 and 572,600.

That’s tonnes of payload to orbit in a single year once Starship V3/Block 3 is mature and SpaceX is finishing three ships per day.

• 109,500 tonnes, zero reuse. Every single ship built that year is expended.

• 572,600 tonnes, 50 % same-day reuse, launch cadence capped at a very achievable ~16 flights per day across multiple towers.

For perspective: the entire world in 2023 + 2024 combined only managed ~3,250 tonnes total to orbit.

So in one year, a single company, with one vehicle design, will be launching 35× to 176× more mass to space than all of humanity did in the last two years combined.

That’s not incremental. That’s a phase change.

Where on Earth - literally - is half a million tonnes of payload per year going to come from?

Mind thoroughly blown. 🚀