Chapter 2: The Paris Agreement, 1.5 Degree Target versus Net Zero Target

2.1 So What is to be Done? The Paris Climate Agreement

In 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) entered into force. Today, it has near-universal membership. The 197 countries that have ratified the Convention are called Parties to the Convention.

At a Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris, on 12 December 2015, the Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. The so-called Paris Agreement33 builds on the Convention and – for the first time – brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so

“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (THE TARGET), recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

Pre-industrial baseline level of zero (0) is taken to be the average of the period 1850 – 1900

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs in the second half of this century.

2016 produced a new world record of
1.25°C above the baseline and therefore heading dangerously close to the Paris target

Worse news is that Europe, was at 1.6°C above the long-term average compared with 2019 which was ‘only’ 1.2°C which was already a record. Siberia and other parts of the Arctic were exceptionally warm, at 3-6°C above average.

Later in 2021, North West Canada experienced an unprecedented 50°C ambient temperature.

Wildfires in Australia and the US (in California the impact of the heat bankrupted the power utility PG&E) , were amongst the most destructive in history,

a large part of the Texas grid was knocked out by frozen wind turbines and solar panels and poorly winterized natural
gas equipment.